Thursday, June 19, 2008

ACT in the NZ elections 2008

In the post below is a list of electorates in New Zealand, the MP who won the seat and the margin of votes in which the candidate won the seat.

While I am here in Italy, I certainly have a bit of time to put some effort into this blog so I thought about how ACT can get at least 10% in the next election which will probably give them the balance of power hopefully with their logical ally and effective cousin National .

Now this is all hypothetical and it is based on the previous election in which Labour came out ahead so really I am sure this will be picked to pieces by anyone who is an expert in these fields but...

If ACT was to get 1/2 of the margin that the winning MP got over the second candidate then it would equate to about 10.33% of the vote without taking the local MP favorites away from the voting public. I did not count the Maori seats or Epsom, although the mathematicians out there wont take more than 3 or 4 minutes to figure it out.

I have also identified seats in which the margin is about 4% or less. These are the seats where competent ACT candidates should run for the seat and give it 100%. These seats are:

East Coast: Which went to National with a vote margin of 1219
Hamilton West: which went to Labour with a margin of 825
Otaki: Which went to Labour with a margin of only 382 votes
Rotorua: Went to Labour with a margin of only 662 votes
Taupo: Labour with a margin of 1285 votes
Tauranga which should be left to National's Simon Bridges who will make a brilliant MP.
(margin 730)

So taking Tauranga out of it, and adding Epsom for Rodney there are 6 electorates in NZ in the forthcoming election that ACT should seriously have a go at. Along with 1 in ten people voting for ACT with a Party vote getting about 10% or slightly more then ACT are in a serious position to make a difference in NZ. The public of NZ are looking for a change and are slightly weary of the two main parties. This would provide a change for the better for all New Zealander's and would give National weary supporters strength in knowing that effective cousin ACT is there for stability and verification.

I have mentioned to Rodney a way that I think will get as much as 15-20%+ of the party vote. Time will tell if ACT use that idea..... If I can take a page out of Sen Barack's book I would have to agree and say that it is time for change. If National get over a 50% majority will that necessarily make for a better NZ, or will it make for a regime that makes all of the decisions as they please without being checked on the consequences? Time will tell.


Rob Good said...

Of course the electorate boundary's have changed, but you should get the jist of where I am going with this if you passed school C

Nigel Kearney said...

It took an enormous effort to win Epsom last time. It seemed like half the ACT people in the country were up there near the end. Winning six electorates isn't realistic, especially while also campaigning for the party vote.

Surely ACT should just lock in Epsom good and tight so there is no talk of wasted votes, then go for the party vote everywhere else.