Sunday, September 24, 2006

National Party up by 11 points?

National looks to have jumped to an 11-point lead over Labour in the latest One News opinion poll released on Sunday night NZ time.

It was the first poll to be taken since revelations about Don Brash's personal life, and was conducted in the middle of the current round of political mudslinging about the sexuality of the PM and her husband.

The One News Colmar Brunton poll puts National up 4 to 49 percent and Labour down 5 to 38.

The Greens are on six, up from 3 percent in the previous poll, with it being the only minor party above 5 percent. ACT is still below 1%, and the Maori Party is steady on 3%.

I guess it is possible for National to get into a majority position without the need to work with any of the other parties, but in the mean time ACT must keep working hard to get above the threshhold. It is possible, but something needs to be implemented very shortly to do so.

The poll of 1,200 people has a margin of error of two-point-eight percent


Aaron Bhatnagar said...

Well for starters, ACT can find something of relevance to the demographics that are most likely to vote for it, and demonstrate that they are standing up for those voters.

Focus group work should give them an idea as to what is on the voters minds.

Sadly, ACT may have ruined their long term interests by going for short term publicity earlier this year.

As for the poll result itself, it's a great vindication that National's performance has been spot on and that they are responding to the concerns of voters very well. It is also interesting to note that there is a sympathy for Don Brash as well - his personal ratings are up. Labour is losing support to the left and the right - the Greens are up 3% too.

Rob Good said...

Environmental issues are important. I think that more parties should support good issues. The greens are known as tokers with unionistic views, so if Nats and ACT threw some legitimate beleivable environmental ideas out there you'd be surprised how many more votes they'd get.